ByQuotes

Clive Granger Quotes

Powerful Clive Granger for Daily Growth

About Clive Granger

Clive William John Granger, born on June 14, 1934, in Swansea, Wales, was a renowned economist known for his groundbreaking work in time-series econometrics and contributions to the development of vector autoregression (VAR) models. Granger's academic journey began at the University College of Swansea, where he studied Mathematics and Statistics. He later moved to the United States to pursue a Ph.D. in Economics at Yale University, completing it in 1961. His academic career took off, with stints at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Stanford University, and Cambridge University, where he held the position of Park Professor of Economics. Granger's work significantly influenced econometrics, a field that applies statistical methods to economic data. His most notable contribution is the Granger Causality Test, which allows researchers to determine whether one time series causes another to change over time. This concept, introduced in his 1969 paper "Investigation of Cointegration and the Econometric Implications of Integrated Time Series," revolutionized econometrics by allowing for the analysis of non-stationary data. Granger was awarded numerous accolades for his work, including the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2003, shared with Robert Engle for their pioneering work in econometrics. His influence extends beyond academia, as his methods are used by central banks, international organizations, and financial institutions worldwide to analyze economic trends and forecast future developments. Despite his many achievements, Granger remained humble and dedicated to his research until his death on March 18, 2020. His work continues to shape the field of econometrics and economics as a whole, serving as a testament to his enduring legacy.

Interpretations of Popular Quotes

"Predictability in economics would be a wonderful thing."

Clive Granger's statement, "Predictability in economics would be a wonderful thing," emphasizes the desire for stability and understanding in economic systems. It suggests that if economic events were predictable, we could make informed decisions with greater certainty, leading to improved forecasting of market trends, effective policy-making, and overall financial wellbeing. However, economics is inherently complex due to various factors like human behavior, political influences, and unforeseen events, making it difficult to accurately predict economic outcomes consistently. This quote highlights the ongoing challenge in achieving that level of predictability, but also underscores the importance of striving for a deeper understanding of the economic forces at play.

"Every financial market is perfectly predictable, given a sufficiently large amount of data and computational power."

This quote by economist Clive Granger suggests that with an infinite amount of data and computational resources, it would theoretically be possible to accurately predict the behavior of any financial market. However, in reality, practical limitations such as accessibility, reliability, and interpretation of data, as well as the complexity and unpredictable nature of markets, make perfect prediction impossible. The quote highlights the potential power of big data and technology but underscores the challenges and limitations that we still face when trying to accurately predict financial market behavior.

"It is an unfortunate truth that forecasting has yet to produce any substantial practical benefits for policy-making."

This quote emphasizes that, despite significant efforts in forecasting or predicting future events, there have been limited practical advantages for decision-makers in policy-making. It highlights a common challenge in many fields, where predictions may be difficult to achieve with accuracy or fail to provide actionable insights when it matters most. Instead, it underscores the importance of developing more robust and reliable forecasting methods that can ultimately translate into effective policymaking and better outcomes.

"The future is unpredictable, but not unknowable."

This quote by Clive Granger suggests that while we cannot predict the exact outcomes or events in the future due to their inherent uncertainty, we can gather knowledge about potential scenarios based on patterns, trends, and available data. In essence, he encourages us to understand and prepare for various possibilities rather than attempting to precisely foresee the specifics of the future.

"There are no 'facts' outside of theory; the choice of theories, therefore, is critical in empirical work." - This quote emphasizes the importance of theoretical frameworks in empirical research.

This quote by economist Clive Granger underscores that empirical observations or 'facts' have no inherent meaning without a theoretical lens to interpret them. In other words, the selection of theories used to examine data is crucial because it shapes our understanding and conclusions drawn from the research. Theoretical frameworks guide us in identifying which facts are relevant, how they should be analyzed, and what they signify, thus making theory choice indispensable in empirical work.

On completing my degree, I started a Ph.D. in statistics, although I knew very little about the topic. My supervisor was Professor Harry Pitt, who was an excellent pure mathematician and probabilist.

- Clive Granger

Excellent, Knew, Very, Pitt

Forecasts vary in horizon, from a few seconds up to a few days in financial markets, compared to from one to several months for macro variables. We have to provide uncertainty intervals around the central forecasts to indicate the extent to which we are unclear about the future.

- Clive Granger

Financial, Vary, Extent, Unclear

In 1973, I was offered a professorship at the University of California, San Diego. Although I was certainly not unhappy at Nottingham, I had been there over twenty years from starting undergraduate studies to Professor of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, and I thought that a change of scene was worth considering.

- Clive Granger

Thought, Been, Applied, Diego

I think it is true to say that I am not the first Nobel Prize winner in economics to have little formal training in economics.

- Clive Granger

Think, Say, I Think, Nobel Prize

The stock market is like a small row boat on a rough sea, bouncing around as it drifts, whereas the macro economy is like a large ocean liner, very ponderous and difficult to maneuver but without such a rough journey.

- Clive Granger

Small, Very, Rough, Whereas

I wonder if economics has less basic core material than is necessary for fields such as mathematics, physics, or chemistry, say.

- Clive Granger

Chemistry, Say, Necessary, I Wonder

A potentially useful property of forecasts based on cointegration is that when extended some way ahead, the forecasts of the two series will form a constant ratio, as is expected by some asymptotic economic theory.

- Clive Granger

Some, Constant, Based, Potentially

A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.

- Clive Granger

Data, Inadequate, Which, Long-Run

I work with the macro economy, which involves the major variables that measure the health of the whole economy, such as total consumption, investment, income, employment, and inflation.

- Clive Granger

Income, Variables, Which, Employment

I preferred to use mathematics in some practical fashion and thought that meteorology sounded promising.

- Clive Granger

Thought, Some, Practical, Preferred

I was born in Swansea in the Principality of Wales in September 1934 and named Clive William John Granger. The 'William John' names were traditional Granger boy's names, and my mother liked the name Clive because some popular musician at the time had it.

- Clive Granger

Some, Had, Named, September

Rob Engle and I are concerned with extracting useful implications from economic data, and so the properties of the data are of particular importance.

- Clive Granger

Rob, Concerned, Implications, Useful

As far as I could tell, I was the first person anywhere in my family tree to go to university.

- Clive Granger

Tell, University, Could, Tree

There are many types of economic data, but the type considered by Rob Engle and myself is know as time series.

- Clive Granger

Data, Rob, Considered, Types

If you're searching for quotes on a different topic, feel free to browse our Topics page or explore a diverse collection of quotes from various Authors to find inspiration.